National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued an alert for rains and possible flooding from Sunday to Thursday.
The forecast indicates moderate to heavy monsoon rainfall across various parts of Pakistan, driven by increased moisture from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea in conjunction with an active westerly wave system.
As a result, increased flows are expected in all major rivers, particularly the Indus, Kabul, Jhelum (upstream Mangla), and Chenab. Currently, Tarbela, Taunsa, and Guddu barrages are at low flood levels, while Kalabagh and Chashma are at medium flood levels.
Taunsa is also expected to rise to medium flood level, with low to medium flows likely to persist in Indus river stations throughout the coming week. River Chenab at Marala and Khanki is expected to reach low flood levels, while River Kabul at Nowshera is also forecasted to attain low flood level.
Rain-induced swelling is anticipated in River Swat and River Panjkora along with their associated streams and nullahs.
Torrential flows in D.G. Khan and Rajanpur torrents are likely to re-activate with medium to high flows during the upcoming weather spell. In Balochistan, streams and nullahs in north-eastern districts including Jhal Magsi, Kachhi, Sibi, Qila Saifullah, Zhob, and Musakhel may experience high flows. Additionally, localized flash flooding is expected in river networks of southern Balochistan districts such as Khuzdar, Awaran, Lasbela, and Qalat. At present, Tarbela Dam is at 74% storage capacity and Mangla Dam is at 44%.
NDMA has advised residents living near rivers, streams, and nullahs to stay vigilant for sudden surges in water levels, especially during heavy rainfall and nighttime. Communities in flood-prone areas should identify safe evacuation routes, secure household items, vehicles, and livestock at elevated locations, and prepare emergency kits with essential supplies including food, water, and medicines sufficient for 3 to 5 days.
